Sovereign Wealth Funds

In this recent press release from the World Bank and the Center for Global Development, World Bank President Robert Zoellick weighs in on the current state of global investment.

“Today, sovereign wealth funds hold an estimated $3 trillion in assets. If the World Bank Group can help create the platforms and benchmarks, the investment of even one percent of their assets would draw $30 billion to African growth, development, and opportunity,” he said.

“Zoellick said sovereign wealth funds offered opportunity, “not something to fear”, adding that “the sovereign funds need transparency and should be guided by best practice to avoid politicization. But I believe we should celebrate a possibility that government-sponsored funds will invest equity in development.”

Mr. Zoellick is undoubtedly correct in ascertaining the positive effect that the sovereign wealth funds could have in Africa’s growth and development, but it remains to be seen if it will occur so readily. Undoubtedly Africa’s cache of natural resources will make it an attractive option in some resource-starved circles.

Overall, the emergence of the idea of the Sovereign wealth fund is certainly one of the most interesting developments in the global economics of the 21st century. On the other hand, one might argue that this is not a really new idea in many respects, as much of the globe was developed with the blessing of sovereign funds of one form or another. For example, North America, India, and Australia were “developed” to greater or lesser degrees by British Corporation’s such as the Hudson’s Bay Co., and the East India Co., under the charter of the Royal family.

There’s also no doubt that modern finance and investment markets are markedly different than they were a few centuries ago, and therefore one cannot responsibly compare the modern sovereign wealth fund with it’s colonizing ancestors. However, this does not change the fact well-capitalized corporations representing sovereign nations have ventured to foreign shores looking for great investments before.

Perhaps the major distinction between the contemporary incarnation of the sovereign investment fund and that of its colonizing ancestors (other than the mode of investment itself) are the locations from which these new funds emanate. Singapore, UAE, China, Norway, Saudi Arabia, and Russia are a few of the nations who are using soaring petrodollars, and current account surpluses to invest in overseas equities. In and of themselves, these nascent funds represent a huge transfer of global wealth, principally from the heavily-indebted United States to resource-rich developing nations.

The fact that these funds are investing in brand-name US financial assets, in institutions such as Citigroup, Merrill-Lynch, and The Blackstone Group, should not be very surprising as with a declining USD, the best deals for these funds awash in greenbacks are found in USD denominated assets, and therefore world-class assets can be had on the cheap.

It will be interesting to see what happens when Japan “gets in the game” (http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/nb20080414a1.html) as it is currently the world’s second largest holder of Foreign currency reserves after China, and its resource needs are perhaps more dire.

Japan is on the record stating that it will pursue “Resource diplomacy” in the foreseeable future (http://www.meti.go.jp/english/), and China is already doing so through its Sovereign Wealth funds, by recently buying stakes in both British Petroleum and Rio Tinto Brasil.

Welcome to the brave new world of global capital and geopolitics.

http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/NEWS/0,,contentMDK:21711325~pagePK:34370~piPK:34424~theSitePK:4607,00.html
http://globaleconomicpulse.blogspot.com/

Japanese Resource Diplomacy

This article from JETRO (The Japanese External Trade Organization) provides a candid appraisal of the world’s projected energy demand by region up to the year 2030.

The report cites the IEA’s (the International Energy Agency - http://www.iea.org/) “World Energy Outlook 2004”, and forecasts that global energy demand will increase a little more than 50% by 2030 from 2002 levels. Among many other interesting facts, the report also reveals that by 2030, the world’s energy demand will triple from 1971 levels.

If nothing else, the report certainly provides an excellent glimpse of the Japanese government’s “cold-eyed” focus on the resource needs of its nation:

“As world demand for energy continues to rise, resource-poor country like Japan must face the reality of the world energy situation. Japan is a resource-poor country that generates only 16% of its energy needs and has to import nearly almost all of mineral resources. Although oil represents a far less important source of total energy consumption than in the 1970s (50% versus nearly 80%) Japan understands oil is a finite resource whose price is likely to rise over time.”

Perhaps most interesting, the report clearly reveals the likely tenor of Japan’s foreign policy in the coming years.

“To ensure adequate domestic supply, Japan is deepening its relationship with key supplier countries through personnel exchanges, joint research projects, and technological cooperation. It has also built up a crude oil reserve equal to around 170 days of supply and a liquefied petroleum gas stockpile equal to 50 days worth of imports. Furthermore, it has been promoting global dialogues, bilateral discussion with individual countries, and interactions with global energy organizations such as OPEC. The Japanese Government also has a determined policy to develop its own oil fields. As METI (http://www.meti.go.jp/english/) Minister Akira Amari recently stated at a news conference the Japanese government is prepared to actively engage in ‘natural resource diplomacy’.”

Indeed.

http://www.jetro.org/content/554